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Monday, December 04, 2006

BIODIESEL OUTLOOK IN 2007

  • Launching of new Trade Regulation of Biofuel (Biodiesel & Bioethanol) to be implemented by Ministry of Energy & Mines. The brand new regulation will be applied to produce, distribute as wholesale and retail as well B100 for overseas export or import Petrodiesel as raw material for blending purpose (B5, B10, etc).
  • For big producer above 10,000 per mt per year the license will be directly issued by Ministry of Energy, and smaller than 10,000mt will be issued by governor of province where the plant is located.
  • Price of Crude Oil will gravitate towards US$ 70 a barrel according to Boone Pickens. It is envisage trading between US$ 55 and maybe US$ 80 per barrel.
  • CPO price according to Tan Sri Lee of IOI say can hit US$ 600 per mt in 2007. Expectation around the US$ 500 per mt level.(range bound between say US$ 475 to US$ 600 per mt)
  • Planned capacity for Biodiesel by 2008 could hit 10 million tons per annum in Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore.
  • Crude Glycerine (CG) disposal will pose problems. However there are some new technologies that could convert the CG to some other products such as to fire CG in boilers without problems
  • Biodiesel product Laboratory equipments for testing all the parameters according to EN 14214 will be critical and could be a business opportunity.
  • Methanol Supply for 2007 should ease when Petronas Methanol Labuan expansion comes on stream in late 2007. Additional 1.5 million tons per annum. We expect price to stabilise at say US$ 350 a mt.

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